EVs in 2025: The road ahead

The global auto industry will see record sales of 97.2 million vehicles in 2025, driven mostly by EVs, according to The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Automotive Outlook.

EVs will again be the best performing segment, and it expects sales will increase by 16% to 19.4 million units. The report also warns that global trade barriers will hamper market growth and fracture supply chains, which will keep EV prices higher for longer. Western carmakers, meanwhile, will remain torn between old and new technologies as they face competition from China.

Technologies such as automation and AI will continue to be integrated into new vehicles, but self-driving cars remain some way off, it says.

According to the International Energy Agency, the robust sales of EVs is being driven by the fall in battery prices. In its World Energy Outlook 2024 report, it says European carmakers will launch seven new EV models next year at under $28 000 (roughly R495 000).

Local EV landscape

President Cyril Ramaphosa used the SA Auto Week 2024 event in Cape Town in October to announce updates to the country’s Electric Vehicle White Paper, first published in December 2023.

The Department of Trade, Industry and Competition, National Treasury and Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources are currently working on finalising the country’s NEV policy. Speaking at the event, Ramaphosa said the policy will encompass hybrids, plug-in hybrids, the production of batteries for battery electric vehicle development and the development of value chains in the green hydrogen fuel cell market.

He also mentioned incentives, tax rebates and subsidies, without going into detail. “Consideration must be given to incentives for manufacturers as well as tax rebates or subsidies for consumers to accelerate the uptake of electric vehicles,” he said, adding this was not just about creating a greener future, but also ensuring South Africa remains competitive in the global market.

This article was originally published in Brainstorm Magazine, Dec/Jan issue.

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